中国的产业结构调整和多元化：基于人口普查数据的研究

Industry Churning and Diversification in China: Research Based on Population Census Data

摘要:

将产业结构调整分解为劳动在行业间流动带来的蘑菇效应和劳动增长带来的酵母效应，结合产业结构多元化基尼系数，采用1982、1990、2000和2010年度人口普查数据分析了改革开放以来中国的产业结构调整与多元化特征，并考察了影响中国产业结构调整和多元化的因素。研究发现：中国产业结构变化具有明显的阶段性和区域性特征；研发和人力资本确实是促进中国产业结构调整的重要因素，研发还促进了产业结构的多元化，但人力资本与产业结构多元化水平负相关；金融发展虽然不利于产业结构调整，但促进了产业结构多元化；外商直接投资与贸易开放度强化了中国的专业化。

Abstract:

This paper decomposes industry churning into two components: mushroom effect originated from inter-industry labor mobility, and yeast effect originated from total labor growth. These indicators and Gini coefficient are applied to measure industry churning and diversification in China over national population census data in 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010. We also empirically examine the determinants of industry churning and diversification. The major conclusions are as follows: research and development (R