定义能源综合碳排放系数(ESCEC)的概念,以该指标表示基于低碳的能源消耗结构的变动,在解析降低煤炭消费比例对ESCEC影响原理的基础上,通过构建能源替代计量模型计算煤炭与其他能源的替代弹性,进而分析降低煤炭消费比例对ESCEC的灵敏度,并基于低碳经济目标进行预测。结果显示：1980～2011年,石油、电力、天然气等可以有效替代煤炭,但这种替代对降低能源综合碳排放系数的贡献率变化较平缓,对降低能源消费总量和碳排放量的贡献由大到小依次为天然气、石油和电力；2011～2020年,煤炭产出弹性不断提高,使得石油、电力、天然气等与煤炭的替代弹性不断下降,导致ESCEC的降低率上升的同时,对能源消费总量和碳排放量降低的贡献大幅下降。可见,煤炭资源的廉价、可得性决定了短期内以煤炭为主的能源结构特征,因此应强化煤炭的基础地位,发展洁净煤技术。

The change of energy consumption structure to low-carbon is defined by the energy synthesized carbon emissions coefficient (ESCEC). Based on parsing the influence mechanism of reducing the coal consumption proportion on ESCEC, this paper builds econometric model of energy substitution to determine the substitution elasticity between coal and others, then analyzes the sensitivity of reducing coal consumption proportion on ESCEC, and predicts it under the low carbon economy target. Results show: in 1980～2011, oil, electricity and gas can substitute for coal effectively, but the contribution of the substitution to reduce ESCEC is subtle, and to reduce the total energy consumption and carbon emissions from large to small in turn for natural gas, oil and electricity. However, the addition of coal output elasticity makes the substitution elasticity between coal and others fall, and leads the reduction ratio of ESCEC to increase while there is a sharp fall in the contribution to lower the total energy consumption and carbon emissions. So, cheapness or availability of coal determines the energy structure characterized by coal-dominated in short time, and we should strengthen the foundation of the coal, develop the clean coal technology.

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河北省软科学研究计划项目“河北省能源消费结构低碳优化研究”（134576266）；中央高校基本业务费专项基金课题“产业结构低碳化减排敏感性的时空分异特征研究”（N130323009）；中央高校基本业务费专项基金课题“基于投资环境评价的中国制造企业OFDI地区投资区位选择研究”（HEUCF130907）；高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金课题“基于低碳经济的能源结构优化研究”（20122304110018）；教育部人文社会科学研究项目“基于低碳经济的节能减排实现路径与绩效评价研究”（13YJA630016）