中国区域经济收敛性的再估计——基于技术溢出的空间动态面板数据模型

Re-estimating Convergence of Regional Economies in China

摘要:

利用空间动态面板数据模型,对1952-2011年中国大陆30个省级区域的经济收敛性进行了估计。结果显示,中国地区间经济在1952-2011,1952-1978,1979-2011这三个时间段中都呈现收敛态势,但改革开放之后在“让一部分人先富起来”的政策影响下收敛速度有所放缓。俱乐部收敛的回归结果表明,改革开放前我国东、中、西部三大区域经济存在俱乐部收敛；改革开放后,中部和东部之间的俱乐部收敛已经消失,但西部没有能够融入到东、中部经济增长的总趋势中,还需采取切实可行的措施进一步加大西部开发力度。

关键词:经济收敛;技术溢出效应;空间动态面板;固定效应

Abstract:

This paper introduces a spatial dynamic panel data (SDPD) approach to estimate the economies’ convergence of 30 mainland provinces in China during 1952-2011. Results show that the regional economies in China have significant convergence in periods 1952-2008, 1952-1978 and 1979-2011. Influenced by the policy of ‘let some people get rich first’, the speed of convergence became slower after the Reform and Opening-up. The club convergence regression results show that, before the Reform and Opening-up, there exists club convergence in the East, Middle and West regional economies in China; after the Reform and Opening-up, the club convergence between the central and Eastern has disappeared, but the west do not to be able to integrate into the Middle and East general trend of economic growth, Practical measures must be taken for further enhancing western development.

Key words:Convergence; Spillover Effects; Spatial Dynamic Panel Data; Fixed Effects