中国经济增长的绿色包容性：基于FA的动态测度

The Green Inclusiveness of Chinese Economic Growth: Dynamic Measurement Based on FA

摘要:

绿色包容性增长作为一种全新的增长理念,自提出便受到国际社会的广泛关注。本文从经济增长、机会平等、成果共享以及资源环境等四个方面建立绿色包容性增长评价指标,运用因子分析法(FA)计算因子综合得分来测度2001—2011年中国经济增长绿色包容性的动态变化。结果表明,2001—2011年中国的教育、医疗卫生以及资源环境状况在整体上不断改善；发展成果共享程度在低层次剧烈波动中缓慢回归,但远低于期初水平；经济增长以2007年为界明显分割,前期稳步上升,后期迅速回落；中国经济增长的绿色包容性在整个期间内有一定程度的改善,但在期间内部存在较大的不稳定性。此外,本文发现机会平等与绿色因子对绿色包容性增长边际贡献最大,从侧面论证了将GDP总量与增速作为经济发展最重要衡量指标存在导向上的错误。

Abstract:

As a new growth idea, Green Inclusive Growth attracted widespread attention by the international society since it was put forward. From the aspect of economic growth, equality of opportunity, achievement sharing and resource environment, this article builds Green Inclusive Growth evaluation index, using factor analysis (FA) to calculate factor scores, and then measuring dynamic change of green inclusiveness of Chinese economic growth from 2001 to 2011. The results show that from 2001 to 2011, Chinese education, health care and resources environment had been improved continuously as a whole ; degree of achievement sharing regresses slowly in the low level of volatility, but far less than the initial level; situation of economic growth segmented obviously since 2007, early rising steadily, quickly falling in the late; green inclusiveness of China"s economic growth had a certain degree of improvement in the whole period, but existed greater instability during the same phase. In addition, this paper finds that the opportunity equality and green factor marginally contributes most to the Green Inclusive Growth, which proves that in terms of guidance, regarding the total amount and growth rate of GDP as the primary index to measure economic development is wrong.