[关键词]
[摘要]
本文运用延伸的EKC模型检验碳排放总量与能源消耗强度、经济增长和碳排放强度的EKC效应，预测降低能源消耗强度和优化能源消费结构实现碳排放强度目标及其碳排放量控制目标的可能性。优化能源消费结构和降低煤炭消耗强度可以有效地降低碳排放强度，减慢碳排放总量上涨速度。在节能减排约束性政策下，碳排放量与人均GDP的关系呈现显著的倒U型EKC效应，与能源消耗强度的关系呈现显著的U型EKC效应，与碳排放强度呈现显著的正相关性。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
This paper examine the EKC effects of energy-consuming intensity, economic development and carbon intensity on carbon emissions quantity using external EKC model, and then forecast that energy-consuming intensity reduction and energy-consuming structure optimization achieve the target possibility of carbon intensity and carbon quantity control. Optimize energy-consuming structure and decrease energy-consuming intensity can incline carbon emissions intensity and slow down the increasing speed of carbon emissions quantity. Under the energy-saving and emission-reduction policy, GDP per population exhibit a significantly inverted-U type EKC effect on carbon emission quantity, energy-consuming intensity exhibits a significant U-type EKC effect on carbon emission quantity, and carbon emission intensity are significantly related with carbon emission quantity.
[中图分类号]
F205
[基金项目]
全国统计科学研究计划一般项目(2013LY125);浙江省哲学社会科学重点研究基地——浙江财经大学政府管制与公共政策研究中心课题(13JDGZ03YB)，浙江省统计研究重点课题（201431）.
