本文契合当前中国经济的主要特征,运用2000-2012年省际面板数据,对影响我国碳排放的各种影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明,对外贸易依存度、城市化水平、人口规模、经济结构对我国二氧化碳排放有显著正影响,但各自的影响系数由弱渐强；外商直接投资一定程度上能降低碳排放,但作用偏小且发生在当期；人均产出水平的提高并未带来二氧化碳排放的实质性减少,说明节能减排技术还没有在生产扩张过程中得到足够的重视；二氧化碳排放是一个连续的过程,受前期的影响很大且显著为正。

Regarding of the main features of current economy in China, and using the panel data of 2000-2012 provincial level, the driving factors of carbon emissions were analyzed. The results indicated that foreign trade dependence degree, urbanization, population size, economic structure had a significant positive impact on China"s carbon dioxide emissions, and their influence coefficients were rising. Foreign direct investment could reduce carbon emissions to some extent, but the effect was small and only occurred in current period. The per capita output did not bring substantial reductions to carbon dioxide emissions, which enough attentions were not be given to the energy-saving and emission-reducing technology in the production expansion process. The carbon dioxide emission was a continuous process, and the current emission was greatly impacted by the lagged emission with a significantly positive effect.

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教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目《异质性视角下FDI溢出技术的吸收主体定位与最佳区间探讨（12YJA790126）》