合资自主品牌的进入是中国汽车工业发展的必然产物,其发展模式的出现受政治、经济、市场环境、企业内部等因素的影响。本文首次通过结构方程模型,将中国的GDP、乘用车销量、千人保有量、恩格尔系数等影响因素对中国合资自主品牌导入时机进行实证研究。通过引入合资自主品牌导入因子e建立合资自主品牌发展模式数理模型,并借助AMOS统计软件进行模型实现和评价,根据评价指标及各变量的实际内涵对模型进行修正和完善。构建模型在“金砖四国”印度、俄罗斯等得到验证,希望为发展中国家或市场潜力大的发达国家促进发展汽车合资自主品牌,提供可借鉴的进入模式和进入时机的研究方法和方式；量化后的理论模型证实具有可操作性和可复制性。

The independent joint venture brand is the inevitable outcome of the development of Chinese auto industry. Its development model has influenced by the political, economic, market environment, the enterprise internal factors. In this paper, for the first time by using the structural equation model, and studying the China GDP, passenger car sales, car owners’ number per thousand people, Engel coefficient and other factors have influence the entry time of the independent joint venture brand, then makes an empirical study on it. Through the model implementation and evaluation with AMOS statistical software, it studies the key factors of the independent joint venture brand ‘s development by researching the factor e which means the entry time of the independent joint venture brand model. And by improving the actual meaning of evaluation index and the variables, the model is modified and improved. The model has been verified in BRICs such as India and Russia which will be brought into play in developing countries and developed countries with large market potential to develop their own independent joint venture brands of automobile. It offers reference in research methods of entry mode and time. The theory model that is quantified has proved its maneuverability and duplicability.

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