应急物资是否足量储备是影响后续救援调度的关键，现实世界的应急物资储备方式是多源的，因此多源物资的协同储备就成为应急准备阶段的关键问题。本文首先根据实地调研的数据计算出上海市某区域的交通事故的密度函数，借用需求连续随机的存储模型对该地区的最优资源存储量进行计算，发现区域内应急救援物资储备的绝对数量不足，而且多个储备源间的调度障碍很大，应急救援调度会出现严重的困难。针对该问题，本文使用结构方程模型，通过调查问卷的形式得出应急救援物资储备协同的影响因素。问卷数据验证了模型的有效性和拟合程度，进一步通过路径系数检验出结构方程模型整体的拟合度。研究发现：事件因素、技术因素、部门权限因素以及部门沟通因素均可以通过正向影响信息沟通共享机制进一步正向影响应急救援资源的协同储备能力。最后，本文对该地区的应急救援物资协同制度改进路径提出可行性的建议。

The reservation of relief supplies in emergency preparation is of top priority. This article proposed a hybrid method that incorporated inventory model and structure equation model. Taking traffic emergency as an example in a given Shanghai municipal district, we first employed the inventory model to calculate the optimal stock of the required relief supplies Furthermore, theoretical hypothesis was established and a questionnaire was designed to figure out factors that have impact on the level of intra-department coordination. After checking the reliability, validity and other parameters of the questionnaire, a series of hypothesis are proved to significantly affect the collaborative inventory strategy. By conducting the hybrid model, we find that event characters, technology ability, agency authorization and inter-agency communication have a positive impact on the information sharing ability across government branches. Thus, a good information system is found to faciliate higher level of coordination. In the end, advices were given from two aspects including the improvement of coordination level and the order of optimal stock.

国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目）