减排政策与工业行业减排成效：2007年前后的比较研究

Emission Reduction Policy and Effect of Emission Reduction to China’s Industrial Sectors: A Comparative Study around Year 2007

摘要:

运用模糊聚类方法并使用总资产、利润总额、能源消耗量和污染物排放量指标对我国39个工业行业进行分类，依据能源消耗和污染物排放特征确定规模特殊行业和效率特殊行业，探究2007年重要减排政策对特殊行业减排成效的影响。主要结论为：能源消耗和污染物排放规模的重工业化趋势减弱，但电力行业始终具有特殊性；2008年起，轻工业行业在能源消耗和污染物处理效率方面的缺陷得到弥补，两类特殊行业证明了工业能源投入与污染产出特征随时间发生变化。同时，减排政策对高污染行业控制成效优于高耗能行业，促进了特殊行业能源消耗和污染物处理效率的整体优化，但需进一步强化轻工业减排政策。最后，提出我国工业减排的政策启示。

关键词:减排政策;工业行业;减排成效;模糊聚类分析

Abstract:

The paper uses fuzzy clustering method and indexes including total assets, total profit, energy consumption and pollutant emission to classify China’s 39 industrial sectors. According to characteristics of energy consumption and pollutant emission, the paper defines the industries of special size and special efficiency, and then explores the influence of important reduction emission policies in 2007 on the effect of special industrial reduction emission. Main conclusions include: heavy industrialization trend of scale of energy consumption and pollutant emission abates but electric power industry always has the particularity. From 2008, defects of light industrial energy consumption efficiency and pollutant treatment efficiency have got made up. These two types of special industries prove that the characteristics of industrial energy input and pollution output change over time. Meanwhile, control effect of reduction emission policies on high pollution industries is greater than energy intensive industries. What’s more, it promotes the whole optimization of special industrial energy consumption efficiency and pollutant treatment efficiency. But light industrial reduction emission policy needs to be strengthened further. Finally, authors put forward policy implications about China’s industrial reduction emission.

Key words:emission reduction policy; industrial sector; effect of emission reduction; fuzzy clustering analysis