经济增长与化石能源脱钩测度分析

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摘要:

根据Tapio脱钩理论,使用基于基期的化石能源和经济增长的复合增长率,重新定义了脱钩弹性,并从经济学角度给出脱钩解释,得出6种脱钩状态。将脱钩弹性分解为增长替代因子、清洁因子和节能因子,并以中国和韩国为对象,实证研究三种因子对脱钩效应的贡献大小。结果表明,增长替代因子、清洁因子和节能因子为韩国化石能源消费与经济增长弱脱钩发挥显著促进作用；三种因子在中国化石能源消费与经济增长脱钩起反向作用力,只是三种因子反向作用力在减弱。这也间接说明增加非化石能源、减缓化石能源消费增速,提高一次能源消费强度,为未来碳减排和保障经济增长提供思考方向。

Abstract:

According to the Tapio’s decoupling theory, this paper redefines the decoupling elasticity by the compound average growth rate between the economic growth and carbon dioxide emission which is based on the different base period. It firstly explains the mechanism from the economics, and then gets six decoupling situations which consist of the strong negative decoupling, recessive strong decoupling, recessive weak decoupling, expansive coupling, weak decoupling and strong positive decoupling. The decoupling elasticity of economic growth and CO2 emission is equal to the product of the growing substitution factor, structure factor and saving factor by the polar decomposition method. These factors are measured the contribution to the decoupling elasticity with the example of China and Korea. The conclusion is that the above three factors significantly promote the decoupling between Korean fossil energy and economics growth into the weak decoupling. However, the three factors plays the opposite effect in China and then the reverse reaction is decreasing. So it indirectly shows that the non- fossil energy should be provided much more, the consumption rate of fossil energy should be lowered, and energy intensity should be enhanced. Furthermore it provides ways to reduce emission and ensure economic growth in future.