基于奇异谱分析方法的北京上海能源消费的二氧化碳排放趋势研究

Singular Spectrum Analysis of Analysis on Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Energy Consumption in Beijing Municipality and Shanghai Municipality

摘要:

使用奇异谱趋势分析方法，对北京、上海能源消费排放二氧化碳量的趋势进行了对比分析，并对其分能源的二氧化碳排放也进行了趋势分析。研究发现: 第一、与现有的二氧化碳及环境趋势分析方法先确定影响因素，再建立模型，然后再描述趋势不同，奇异谱趋势分析方法是根据已有的数据，将其拆分成可解释的小分量成分并拟合成趋势、再进行预测。由于奇异谱趋势分析方法是一种纯信号描述，可以避免由于影响因素确定不合理所带来的分析误差。第二、奇异谱趋势分析的趋势预测值与预测值在方向、程度上经常是不同的，奇异谱的趋势分析方法能帮助我们从纷繁数据中找出其变化的主要趋势，不被暂时的数据所迷惑。

Abstract:

Contrast analyzing the trends of carbon dioxide emissions of energy consumption and the different categories of carbon dioxide emissions of energy consumption both in Beijing municipality and Shanghai municipality respectively with the singular spectrum analysis (SSA).First, the study has shown that singular spectrum analysis is different from existing methods of trend analyzing of carbon dioxide emissions and environment which are ensure the factors at the first place, then build the model and describe the different tendency. However, singular spectrum analysis is decompose the historical data into small component composition which can be explained, then fitting for the trend and finally forecast it. Because singular spectrum analysis is a pure signal description, it can successfully avoid the analytical error from the irrationality of influence factors. Second, singular spectrum analysis’s predicted value of tendency is different from the predicted value on the aspect of direction and degree, the trend analyzing of SSA can help us find the main tendency from the complex historical data and never confusion with the temporary data.