新疆碳排放、能源消费与经济增长关系的实证研究

An Empirical study on the Relations between Carbon Emissions Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Xinjiang

摘要:

本文利用新疆1978~2013年的样本数据，在环境库兹涅茨曲线基础上，运用VAR模型的广义脉冲响应及Granger检验方法对新疆碳排放、能源消费与经济增长之间的动态关系进行计量研究。研究表明：经济增长是碳排放和能源消费增长的Granger原因，碳排量与能源消耗不是经济增长变化的Granger原因；它们之间呈现不同于经典的EKC理论的“N”型环境兹涅茨曲线；为此，本文从新疆的实际区情出发，提出从能源消费结构、降低碳排放等方面采取相应的措施，实现新疆经济绿色增长。

Abstract:

Based on the sample data of xinjiang from 1978 to 2013, and on the basis of environmental kuznets curve, this paper used the generalized impulse response of the VAR model and Granger test methods to carry out qualitative research on xinjiang carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in the dynamic relationship between the three. Research shows that economic growth is the Granger cause of carbon emissions and energy consumption, carbon emissions and energy consumption is not the Granger cause of the change of the economic growth; their "N" type of environment we kuznets curve is different from the classical theory of EKC; Therefore, from the actual situation of xinjiang and the aspects of energy consumption structure, reducing carbon emissions. this paper put forward to taking corresponding measures to achieve green growth in xinjiang.