新技术产品团购中群体极化形成的 主体建模与仿真研究

Agent-based Modeling and Simulation of Group Polarization Formation on Group-buying of new technological product

摘要:

新技术产品由于操作复杂、价格高昂等特点在市场推广时困难重重，而团购中群体的交流互动能够降低消费者对不确定性的感知进而影响购买，因此，本文以解释观点演化的Deffaunt“有界信任模型”为基础，运用复杂系统多主体的建模方法，构建了群体视角下的新技术产品团购观点涌现的仿真模型。数值仿真证明了模型的合理性并表明：发起人与团友的互动次数多，意见领袖与团友的互动次数多，发起人的执行力强，都不同程度地导致正向群体极化，任何情况下都不会出现负向群体极化。最后探讨了利用团购中的群体极化推广新技术产品的实践应用。

Abstract:

The new technological product possesses the feature of complex operation, high cost and so on, so it is beset with difficulties in market promotion, however, group communications and interaction can reduce consumers’ uncertainty to influence purchase in group-buying, therefore, based on Deffaunt “limited trust model”, a group-buying dynamic opinion model of the new technological product from group perspective is developed in a multi-agent complex system. Numerical simulations show that the model is reasonable and indicate that the times of sponsor interacting with members, the times of opinion leaders interacting with members and the executive ability of sponsor all cause positive group polarization in different extent, negative group polarization do not appear in any case. Finally, the paper takes advantage of group polarization in group-buying to explored the practical application of promoting the new technological product.