基于演化博弈理论的低碳技术创新链式扩散机制研究

Research on Chain Diffusion of Low-carbon Technological Innovation Mechanism Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

摘要:

低碳技术创新链式扩散是低碳经济情境下创新提供者与潜在采纳者的微观策略决策机制作用下产生的宏观现象。基于创新扩散理论,利用演化博弈方法建立了市场机制和政府规制下低碳技术创新扩散的链式过程中创新提供者与潜在采纳者间的演化博弈模型,探讨了二者间相互作用对宏观扩散的影响机制。理论研究和数值仿真结果表明：市场机制下将低碳技术创新的转移价格控制在一定范围内系统才能达到低碳技术创新成功扩散的理想状态；政府规制下对创新提供者和潜在采纳者实施补贴和减税政策对低碳技术创新扩散有显著正向作用,但采取惩罚措施易导致低碳技术创新扩散的失败。

关键词:低碳技术创新;链式扩散;创新提供者;潜在采纳者;演化博弈

Abstract:

Chain Diffusion of low-carbon technological innovation is macroscopic phenomena arising from interaction between innovation providers and potential adopters in the context of low-carbon economy. Establish evolutionary game model between innovation providers and potential adopters in the chain process of low carbon technology innovation diffusion under market mechanism and government regulation based on evolutionary game theory. And explore effects of interaction between innovation providers and potential adopters on macroscopic diffusion. Theoretical study and numerical simulation show that diffusion system can achieve the ideal state where low-carbon technological innovation diffuses successfully when the price of low-carbon technological innovation transformation is controlled within a certain range. Implementation of subsidies and tax cuts has significant positive effect on low-carbon technological innovation diffusion, but punitive measures can easily lead to failure of low-carbon technological innovation diffusion.

Key words:low-carbon technological innovation; chain diffusion; innovative provider; potential adopter; evolutionary game theory