低碳并购是生态文明建设过程中企业实施的新型并购模式,其绩效受到宏观经济形势与环境因素的影响,本文首次探讨低碳并购绩效与宏观经济及环境的深层次关系。基于协整理论建立VAR模型,对模型进行预测、脉冲响应函数分析与方差分解,实证发现：在生态文明推进过程中,低碳并购绩效与各宏观经济变量及环境变量之间存在长期稳定的协整关系。低碳并购的长期预测绩效改善甚微,资本市场发展状况、宏观经济形势对低碳并购绩效产生正向影响,而环境污染与能源消耗对低碳并购绩效产生负面影响。资本市场对低碳并购绩效的贡献要大,而能源消耗、环境污染不利于低碳并购绩效的提高。

Low carbon M A is a new model of enterprise M A in process of ecological civilization construction,and its performance is affected by the macroeconomic situation and environmental factors. This is the first to explore the deep relationship between performance of Low-Carbon M A and macroeconomic, environment.An VAR model is built up based on the Cointegration theory of VAR model,and then it used toforecast, the impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition.it found: In the process of promoting ecological civilization, it has stable long-term cointegration relationship between the M A performance of low carbon and macroeconomic and environmental variables.Little prediction performance low carbon acquisition is improved in long-term. Capital market development and the macroeconomic situation has a positive impact on low carbon acquisition performance,while Environmental pollution and energy consumption has a negative impact on low carbon acquisition performance,but Energy consumption, environmental pollution is not conducive to the performance improvement of low carbon M A.

国家社会科学基金项目“生态文明建设背景下低碳并购绩效评价方法与实证研究” (13CGL030)；浙江省重点学科“区域经济学”项目。