数码成像技术之于柯达破产、智能手机之于Nokia没落、安卓之于微软“一家独大”地位动摇等一系列技术范式转换现象的频繁出现预示着“蚂蚁扳倒大象”已不仅成为现实,而且会越来越普遍。在此背景下,企业如能预见到新的技术范式,并识别、培育出突破性技术,则能成为新范式的掌舵者、行业的领导者。然而,已有的、基于线性思维的技术预测/预见方法尚难以解决包含高不确定性、复杂性的技术范式转换问题。本文认为,技术生态理论强调从“技术—环境—组织”去认识技术演化,提供了一个解释新技术衍生机理的框架。因此,从技术生态理论出发,有可能寻找到技术范式转换预见的途径。

A series of technological paradigm transformation phenomenon occurs frequently, such as Kodak’s bankruptcy with digital imaging technology, Nokia’s decline with smart phones and Microsoft "a dominant" position’s wobble with Android system. It shows that elephant is not only a reality, but also an increasingly common. In this context, if the dominant firms can foresee the new technological paradigm, and that identify and cultivate disruptive technology, it could be a helm of new technological paradigm and the leader of the industries. However, the present technology forecasting/foresight methods based on linear thinking are still difficult to solve the problem of technological paradigm transformation with high uncertainty and complexity. We thought that the technology ecology theory stresses to understand the evolution of technology from a “technology-environment—organization” perspective, and it provides a mechanism to explain how the new technology derives. Therefore, it is possible to find a way to foresee technological paradigm transformation based on the technology ecology.

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国家自然科学基金项目“我国低碳经济实现的政策路径研究：基于企业的视角”（71073078）；江苏省研究生创新项目“基于技术范式转换的技术预见：理论与方法”（CXLX13_444）。