运用熵和耗散结构对突发事件演化特点进行深入的分析,明确了突发事件演化过程符合耗散结构非线性及动态变化的特性。根据突发事件演化的耗散结构特点,对经典布鲁塞尔器(Brusselator)模型进行转义处理,建立了突发事件演化的耗散结构判断模型。依据模型建立正负熵指标体系,判断事件演化的受控性是否满足耗散结构的有序平衡状态。最后依据事故资料,对2013年某输油管道泄漏事故进行了分析,分析结果与实际事故的发展过程具有良好的吻合性,可为突发事件的应急决策提供有益的借鉴。

Many major hazardous installations are gathered in chemical industry zone, hence expansion accident is likely to occur and serious consequences may be brought. Characteristics of the occurrence, expansion and evolution of emergency events in chemical industry park were analyzed deeply and it indicates that the evolution process has the same characteristics with the dissipative structures in nonlinear interactions and dynamics. Based on mechanism analysis of dissipative structure to emergency events evolution, the Brusselator model used to express the evolution process of emergency event in chemical industry zone was established by the variables translation as judgment model of dissipative structure. According to the positive and negative entropy index system, the controllability of evolution process can be determined whether it meets the ordered equilibrium of dissipative structures or not. Based on reported data of an oil pipeline leak accident in 2013, the evolution process was analyzed by the model proposed in the paper, and the analyzed conclusion has good compliance with the real escalation process. The research conclusion will provide the useful lessons to the emergency decision-making in chemical industry zone.

C93; X913

国家自然科学“化工园区事故情景演化重构及应急决策研究”(71403293),国家自然科学“化工园区事故随机演化特性及整体安全性优化研究”(51104174),中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“基于ARAMIS 体系的化工园区综合风险评价研究”(14CX02067A),中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“基于多准则决策的化工园区整体安全性评价体系研究”(14CX04024B)