基于BP人工神经网络的BOT项目风险评估研究

The Research of BOT Project Risk Assessment based on BP Neural Network

摘要:

当前我国对于基础设施建设要求迫切,但国家财政投入远远不能满足建设所需资金。BOT项目融资作为一种新兴的融资方式有效的解决了资金短缺问题。BOT项目建设运营过程中参与方众多,同时项目持续时间长,风险因素比以往项目的风险更为复杂,如何有效管理BOT项目风险成为项目成败的关键问题。分析研究众多风险评估管理方法后,鉴于神经网络的优点,本文构建基于BP人工神经网络的风险评估模型 ,并对模型进行应用和探讨。

Abstract:

At present, the demand for infrastructure construction is urgent for our country, the national financial investment cannot meet the need of construction. BOT project financing which is a new financing way solves the conflict between the needs of the actual construction and the national financial investment effectively. BOT project has many participants, it also has a much longer project cycle, and its risk factors are more complex than the risk factors in the past. So how to manage BOT project risks effectively becomes the key of success or failure for a project. After researching many risks management methods, this paper constructs a risk assessment model which is based on BP artificial neural network in view of the advantages of neural network, and also discusses this model.