低碳经济下物流碳足迹动态预测研究——基于2004-2012年30省市面板数据

Logistics Carbon Footprint Dynamic Prediction Research in the Low-carbon Economics---- Based on the Data of 30 Provinces in 2004-2012

摘要:

为减轻雾霾污染,发展低碳经济,从能源消耗角度测算了2004-2012年省域物流业的碳足迹,根据测算结果并参考政府工作文件,提出我国不同省域物流业在 “十二五”和“十三五”期间的碳强度和能耗强度目标规划值,并引入灰色预测模型进行分析。结果表明：1、我国物流碳足迹的排放总量一直呈现上升趋势,西北省份如宁夏、内蒙古等涨幅最快,上海、广东等沿海省份增速放缓,从物流碳足迹规模角度可分为四个层次。2、“十二五”期间我国未能完成物流碳足迹动态节能减排目标,但在“十三五”期间可以完成,全国一半省份可以完成研究期内物流碳足迹节能减排“双强度”目标,并且大部分省市的“双强度”值呈下降趋势。

Abstract:

With the increasing concern of haze pollution and low-carbon economics, in the view of energy consumption, measured the carbon footprint of the logistics industry in 2004-2012, according to the calculated result and reference government documents, putting forward different provincial logistics industry in China during the 12th Five Year Plan and 13th Five Year Plan of carbon intensity and energy intensity value goal planning, and using the grey prediction model. The results showed that: 1. China’s logistics have been showed a trend of rising emissions of carbon footprint, northwest provinces such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia keep the fastest growth, Shanghai, Guangdong and other coastal provinces growth is slowing, according to logistics carbon footprint size can be divided into four levels. 2. The 12th Five Year period, our country fails to complete the logistics carbon footprint dynamic energy conservation and emissions reduction targets, but during the period of 13th Five Year can do, 15 provinces logistics can complete ’ "double strength" value is on the decline.