中国碳排放福利绩效分析与预测

Analysis and Prediction on Wellbeing Performance of Carbon Emissions in China

摘要:

在构建我国碳排放福利绩效指标的基础上，测算过去10年间（2000-2010）我国碳排放福利绩效，通过LMDI因素分解法探讨了影响中国碳排放福利绩效变化的主要因素，最后采用灰色GM（1，1）模型对中国短期碳排放福利绩效进行预测。结果表明：（1）中国碳排放福利绩效呈逐年下降趋势；（2）驱动中国碳排放福利绩效的主要因素是能源排放比率，所有年份的可持续发展效应小于0，表现出抑制作用；（3）到2015年中国碳排放福利绩效预测值为0.062，减排形势严峻。

Abstract:

Based on the construction of wellbeing performance index of carbon emission, the paper estimates Chinese carbon emissions performance over the period of 2000-2010, then analyses the influence factors of carbon emissions performance by using LMDI decomposition model. Finally this paper utilizes GM(1,1) model to predict short-term wellbeing performance in China. The result indicates: (1) Chinese carbon wellbeing performance is declining; (2) Energy emission ratio is the main factor of driving Chinese carbon emissions wellbeing performance, but sustainable development effect is less than zero, which shows that the effect restrains the increase of wellbeing performance; (3) The predictive value of Chinese carbon emissions welfare performance is 0.062 by 2015, the situation of emission reduction will be very grim.