资源密集型区域“科技-环境-经济”优化方案研究——以黑龙江省为例

Research on Optimization of “Technology-Environmental-Economic” for Development Strategies in Resource-Intensive Area—Based on the SD-MOP Integrated Model

摘要:

资源密集型区域系统优化是实现区域经济协调发展战略的基础和核心。论文利用系统动力学(SD)模型对科技研发课题数量、污染物排放总量和GDP增长率的变化趋势进行预测,以科技产出、生态环境效益和经济效益的最优化为目标,构建了“科技—环境—经济”三重目标的SD-MOP整合模型,并对2025年黑龙江省“科技—环境—经济”系统进行仿真和优化。结果显示：到2025年,经济效益和科技产出成果分别增加了22.27%和21.15%,而环境污染水平却降低了9.16%；与以经济发展为目标的SD优化方案相比,经济效益和科技产出分别增加了2.98%和5.79%,而污染水平却降低了6.41%。研究表明,以“科技—环境—经济”发展为主的SD-MOP优化方案明显优于以经济发展为主的SD优化方案。

Abstract:

The system optimization of resource-intensive areas is the base and core to achieve the comprehensively, coordinately development of regional economic. In this paper, the trends of R D topics quantity, pollutant emissions and growth rate of GDP is forecasted using System Dynamics model. The SD-MOP integrated model of “Technology-Environmental-Economic” triple objective is built to optimize the scientific output, eco-environmental and economic benefits. Then the “Technology-Environmental-Economic” system of Heilongjiang Province in 2025 is simulated and optimized. The results show that the economic and technological achievements outputs are respect increased by 22.27% and 21.15%, while the level of environmental pollution has decreased 9.16% until 2025. Compared with the SD optimization program using economic development as the goal, economic and scientific output are respect increased by 2.98% and 5.79%, while the pollution level has decreased 6.41%. Study shows that the “Technology -Environmental-Economic” program based on SD-MOP optimization model is obviously superior to the economic development program of SD-based optimization scheme.