政府在新能源投资系统中的角色——基于演化博弈的分析

The Role of government in New Energy Sources investment based on Evolutionary Game Theory

摘要:

运用演化博弈理论对政府在新能源投资系统中的角色进行了分析,研究表明：无政府介入时,投资新能源群体终将消亡；若政府通过激励和改善投资环境的方式介入时,激励策略对投资者行为具有重要引导作用,但依赖于系统的初始投资概率；随着新能源投资环境的改善,政府激励策略发挥的作用逐渐变弱,结论的政策启示是,政府在新能源发展前期扮演着引导、扶持及改善投资环境的角色,随着新能源产业的逐步成熟,政府与市场角色应作适时的转换。

关键词:新能源;政府角色;投资系统;演化博弈论

Abstract:

This paper studies the role of government in new energy sources development usingSevolutionary game theory. The results show that if government doesn’t intervene, the group investing in new energy will die; if government intervenes, the evolution trend of investment system depends on the initial probability of investment and the degree of government intervention, including in incentive strategy and improvingStheSinvestmentSenvironment. Finally, some policy implications are proposed according to the above results.

Key words:new energy sources; government role; investment system; Evolutionary Game theory