节能减排背景下广东能源结构优化及对策研究*

Research on optimization of energy structure and countermeasures in Guangdong province under the background of energy conservation and emission reduction

摘要:

通过可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型分析研究广东省在节能减排情景下的能源结构优化问题。首先对广东省构建CGE模型,形成一个10部门模型；然后通过广东省投入产出表等数据编制出广东省的社会核算矩阵(SAM)；最后,通过情景模拟分析得出广东省的理想能源结构。结果表明,在保持经济稳定增长时,广东省在低碳减排的情景下可以有效的改善能源结构、减少化石能源的消费并提高低碳能源的比例,由此提出了广东省能源结构优化的发展思路。

Abstract:

The article aims to study the optimization of energy structure under the background of energy conservation and emission reduction in Guangdong province through the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model. It constructs on the basis of the computable general equilibrium model of Guangdong province and form a ten- departments model. Then with the date obtained from the input-output table of Guangdong province, the author constructs the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Guangdong province. Finally, through the scenario analysis of the CGE model, the author obtains the ideal energy structure of Guangdong Province. The model simulation result shows that, under the premise of maintaining steady growth, Guangdong can effectively improve the energy structure and reduce the consumption of fossil fuels and then improve the proportion of low carbon energy. Based on this, the author puts forward with a way of development direction of the optimization of energy structure in Guangdong province.