基于系统动力学的生产应急动员能力模型构建

The Model of Production Emergency Mobilization Capability Based on SD

摘要:

应急动员能力的研究是确定非常规突发事件中应急物资供给瓶颈的有效手段。论文从应急动员能力的构成入手,在分析能力构成的基础上,以Vensim PLE为平台建立生产企业的动员能力要素因果关系模型以及混合图模型,并对其中相关的方程和变量做出解释和说明,最后以实例解释模型的模拟情况。该模型为诠释生产企业如何保障应急物资的超常规供给提供模型基础,同时也解释了非常规突发事件下生产应急运行机理,为下一步的政策建议提供依据。

Abstract:

Research on emergency mobilization capability is an effective measure to determine supply bottle. This article begins with the point of how such capability constitutes. On the basis of capability constitution, it constructs casual model and combination chart model on the platform of Vensim PLE, then explaining relative variable and equation. Finally an example is given to explain the simulation of model. The model offers model base to interpret how manufacturing enterprise guarantees unconventional supply of emergency materials, to explain the operating mechanism of production emergency mobilization capability, and further to prepare political basis.