粮食生产技术进步的农户福利效应分析

Grain Technological Improvement under the Condition of Farmers’ Household Welfare Effects

摘要:

基于我国1978—2011年粮食生产与消费的相关数据，在对粮食供给弹性和需求弹性估计的基础上，运用Akino和Hayami提出的技术变动福利效应模型考察粮食生产技术进步对生产者和消费者福利变动的影响。结果表明：技术进步促进了社会整体福利的改善；粮食生产技术进步并没有促进农户福利的改善，消费者分享了粮食生产技术进步的绝大多数福利，反映出技术进步导致经济剩余在生产者和消费者之间的分配是非均衡的，技术进步的分配效应具有非均衡性。最后提出保障农户福利、实施农产品价格支持政策，通过增加竞争者的模仿难度、防止农业踏车效应的产生等政策建议。

Abstract:

This paper used the Akino and Hayami welfare effects model to analyze China’s grain production welfare change caused by technological progress. The analysis is based on 1978-2011 grain production and consumption time series data of China, the grain supply elasticity and demand elasticity was estimated. The results show as follows: the technical progress brings about the total welfare improvement for the whole society. However, technology advancements have a negative effect on producer welfare surplus, while consumer welfare surplus have a positive effect. Technological progress have allocation effect although this deploy is not balanced between producer surplus and consumer surplus. The producer welfare confronted to losses, while the total welfare is more conducive to the consumers. Finally, technological progress control policies are put forward for the welfare improvement.