装备研制中的技术成熟度评价方法研究

Research on the Method of Technology Readiness Levels Evaluation in the Material Development

摘要:

自20世纪70年代美国国家航空航天局首次提出技术成熟度的概念以来,技术成熟度评价作为一种控制研制风险的有效工具,在美国的重大武器装备采办项目管理中发挥了重要的作用。但目前该工具在我国的应用尚不成熟,没有形成科学、系统的评价方法。针对该现状提出了一个技术成熟度评价的指标体系,用以全面刻画技术在向装备实物转化过程中的状态,同时提出了基于层次分析法、信息熵和灰色关联聚类的指标权重确定方法,使得专家的决策信息得以充分挖掘利用,并通过一个算例验证了该方法在应用中的可行性和有效性,旨在为进一步开展技术成熟度管理工作提供借鉴。

Abstract:

Technology Readiness Levels has been anSeffective tool toScontrolSthe risk of material development and played an important role inSAmericanSmajorSweapon and equipmentSacquisition projects since National Aeronautics and Space Administration of America first put forward the concept of it in the 1970s. But the application of this tool in China is not mature without a scientific and systematic evaluation method. An index system was created to characterize completely the situation of a technology when transformed to material. A method of determining index weight based on Analytic Hierarchy Process, the information entropy and grey correlation clustering was also designed thus excavating and making full use of the information in experts’ decisions. An example proved the feasibility and effectiveness of the method in application. The aim is to provide a reference for further working of Technology Readiness Levels management.