知识密集型生产者服务业与制造业联动发展分析——基于VAR模型的实证研究

A Survey on the Interactive Development of Knowledge Intensive Producer Service and Manufacturing Based on the VAR Model

摘要:

知识密集型服务业与制造业联动发展是现阶段关注的热点。选取知识密集型生产者服务业作为研究对象,根据国内1992-2012年信息服务业、科技服务业、金融服务业、商务服务业增加值及制造业历史数据,构建VAR模型,利用ADF检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应及方差分解方法,探讨了知识密集型生产者服务业与制造业间的联动发展状况。结果表明,知识密集型生产者服务业增加值与制造业增加值间存有长期稳定的协整关系；提升科技服务业与商务服务业水平是科学推动制造业发展的有效途径。针对研究结果,提出了推动产业联动发展的相关建议。

Abstract:

The interactive development of knowledge intensive business service and production is a hot issue at present. Based on the vector autoregressive method, this study investigated the relationship between knowledge intensive producer service and production using the variable stationary and co-integration test, granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis from 1992 to 2012. Results show that there is a long-term and stable co-integration relationship between knowledge intensive producer service and production, and the positive influence of information service to knowledge intensive producer service industry is the largest. Enhance the level of scientific and technology services and business services are the effective way to promote the development of production, while production has been the biggest influence on scientific and technology services. According to the results, put forward the suggestions for promoting the interactive development of knowledge intensive producer service and production.