我国页岩气开发技术工程化实现的学习曲线研究

The learning curve research on technology engineering implementation for Shale gas development in China

摘要:

技术学习是实现页岩气开发技术工程化的重要途径,开发技术工程化是实现规模化商业开发的前提。页岩气作为一种新兴的能源,其开发技术极大的区别于常规油气,具有显著的技术学习效应。以往学者定义的技术学习曲线只能描述钻井数量与边际钻井成本变动的关系,并不能反映出页岩气开发开发过程中地质、技术以及环境等不确定性问题引发的沉没钻井成本变动。针对这一不足,本研究在界定页岩气开发技术工程化实现内涵的基础上,把技术学习对钻井成本的作用途径分为直接的技术规模效应和减小不确定性问题发生可能性,提高钻井成功率,降低沉没钻井成本的间接作用,并分析两种途径的作用机理及演化过程。依据涪陵页岩气田的实地调研信息和专家访谈数据,拟合了不同开发阶段对应井别的钻井总成本学习曲线,并与传统的技术学习曲线进行了对比分析。研究发现,页岩气开发早期相比中后期,技术学习速率更高,钻井成本剧烈变动变动更剧烈；当只考虑技术学习的规模效应,钻井成本变动更为平缓,技术学习对钻井成本的间接作用显著的增大了技术的学习效应。

Abstract:

Technological learning is the important road to realize shale gas development technology engineering, and technology engineering is the premise to realize large-scale commercial development. There are many differences in technology learning effect between conventional and unconventional oil and gas resources. Technology learning curve traditionally describes the relationship between marginal cost and well drilled not reflects changes in drilling costs caused by uncertainties coming from factors such as geology condition, technology and environment. Based on realization of technology engineering, the present paper identifies the effect approach of technology learning to drilling cost by two ways: direct technology scale effect and indirect effect caused by reducing possibility of uncertainties, rising success rate of well-drilling, and reducing sunk cost of well-drilling as well as mechanism and evolution process. Through so-site survey and expert interviews, this paper describes total cost learning curve corresponding to different functional wells. Compared with traditional technology learning curve, we find that at the early stage of shale gas development, there are high technology learning rate with drilling cost fluctuation. When only taking scale effect of technology learning into account, there are little changes in drilling cost and indirect effect of technology learning on drilling cost increases technology learning effect dramatically.