技术赶超中的模仿陷阱与跨越问题研究

Imitation trap and how to step across it

摘要:

本文通过扩展罗默三部门内生增长模型,依次将模仿与自主创新两种技术进步的方式引入研发部门建立了一个后发经济体技术赶超模型。运用该模型对后发经济体技术赶超中的经济运行路径进行分析,结果发现中间品生产企业的价值变化与中间品种类数的变动之间的相互作用和影响所构成的动力系统推动着后发经济体的技术进步沿着一定的路径运行。一般情况下,赶超的经济路径会经历模仿与创新两个漩涡式的均衡点,处于世界技术前沿的国家经济运行路径在创新均衡点及附近,而赶超经济体要跨越模仿均衡点才能达到创新均衡从而实现赶超,经济系统陷入模仿陷阱后很难突破模仿均衡。想跃迁到创新均衡必需要借注于外力,通过对于相应的外生变量及外部环境的改变实现跨越。

Abstract:

Based on a three-sector endogenous growth model given by Romer, author introduces imitation and innovation in proper order to R D sector and then constructs a technological catch-up model of lagging economies. By the model, this paper analyzes economic run-path in the process of technological catch-up of lagging economies. It suggests that the changes of value of intermediate goods production enterprise and the number of types of intermediate goods interact to form a power system which gives impetus to technological catch-up running along a certain path. In the economic run-path, generally, there are two whirlpool equilibrium point which is called imitation and innovation equilibrium point. The economic run-path of countries in the world technology frontier run nearby the innovation equilibrium point, before arriving at which lagging economies need to step over the imitation equilibrium point. It is difficult to break through if economic system fall into imitation trap. In this case, we must get help from the power of the system outside in order to step across imitation trap.