碳捕集、利用与封存技术是应对气候变化减排二氧化碳的有效技术之一,而将二氧化碳存储于深部地层中,往往因为一些地质及工程的原因而导致二氧化碳泄漏,会对人类和生态环境都会造成巨大的影响。考虑到二氧化碳泄露风险的不确定性,用模糊语言来评价二氧化碳泄露的各种风险因素,将模糊集和证据理论相结合进行二氧化碳地质封存项目安全风险评价。采用Jousselme距离确定的专家权重,并对冲突证据进行修正,再采用Dempster组合规则融合不确定证据信息。通过严格的风险评价程序,从而选择理想的二氧化碳封存场地。

Carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage technologies are one of the effective technologies to reduce greenhouse gas atmospheric emissions in order to reply for climate change. After sequestrating a large number of CO2 in underground, the potential risk of accidental leakage may happen caused by some geological and engineering factors and the leakage may cause a huge impact on human and ecological environment. Considering the uncertainty of the CO2 leakage, fuzzy linguistic languages given by the experts are used to evaluate the risk factors of CO2 leakage, the combination of the fuzzy set and evidence theory is proposed to make risk assessment. The Jousselme distance is used to determine the weight of experts, then the Dempster combination rule is used to fuse the uncertain conflicting evidences considering the experts weights. Through the strict safety risk evaluation procedure, the best geological storage site can be selected.

C931; X820.4

教育部人文社科基金项目“基于模糊集和证据理论的碳捕集与封存项目安全风险评价”(14YJCZH041);北京市哲学社会科学规划项目“北京市高技术企业员工心理契约对知识共享的影响研究”（12JGC081）;北京市属高等学校高层次人才引进与培养计划项目（The Importation and Development of High-Caliber Talents Project of Beijing Municipal Institutions）支持