基于模糊证据理论的二氧化碳地质封存项目安全风险评价

Safety Risk Evaluation for CO2 Geological Storage Projects Based on Fuzzy sets and evidence theory

摘要:

碳捕集、利用与封存技术是应对气候变化减排二氧化碳的有效技术之一,而将二氧化碳存储于深部地层中,往往因为一些地质及工程的原因而导致二氧化碳泄漏,会对人类和生态环境都会造成巨大的影响。考虑到二氧化碳泄露风险的不确定性,用模糊语言来评价二氧化碳泄露的各种风险因素,将模糊集和证据理论相结合进行二氧化碳地质封存项目安全风险评价。采用Jousselme距离确定的专家权重,并对冲突证据进行修正,再采用Dempster组合规则融合不确定证据信息。通过严格的风险评价程序,从而选择理想的二氧化碳封存场地。

关键词:二氧化碳地质封存;模糊语言;证据理论;Jousselme距离;Dempster组合规则

Abstract:

Carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage technologies are one of the effective technologies to reduce greenhouse gas atmospheric emissions in order to reply for climate change. After sequestrating a large number of CO2 in underground, the potential risk of accidental leakage may happen caused by some geological and engineering factors and the leakage may cause a huge impact on human and ecological environment. Considering the uncertainty of the CO2 leakage, fuzzy linguistic languages given by the experts are used to evaluate the risk factors of CO2 leakage, the combination of the fuzzy set and evidence theory is proposed to make risk assessment. The Jousselme distance is used to determine the weight of experts, then the Dempster combination rule is used to fuse the uncertain conflicting evidences considering the experts weights. Through the strict safety risk evaluation procedure, the best geological storage site can be selected.

Key words:carbon capture and sequestration; fuzzy linguistic language; evidence theory; Jousselme distance; Dempster combination rule