基于低碳经济视角的我国碳排放强度的影响因素分析

Factors Affecting China’s Carbon Emissions Intensity from Low Carbon Economy Perspective

摘要:

在我国宏观低碳经济背景下,控制碳排放量首要任务是降低碳排放强度。本文首次将中间投入强度及投入结构引入到碳排放强度影响因素研究中,选用2000年、2002年、2005年、2007年及2010年的数据,运用LMDI因素分解方法将我国碳排放强度的影响因素分解为能源结构效应、能源投入替代率效应、投入结构效应和中间投入强度效应。结果表明：能源投入替代率加快碳排放强度的降低,中间投入强度和投入结构抑制碳排放强度的降低,能源结构对碳排放强度的降低作用不明显。从因素总效应来看,除了2002年至2005年间各影响因素整体抑制了碳强度的降低外,其他各区段间因素效应之和加速碳强度的降低。因此,调整投入结构、提高能源效率成为碳减排的当务之急。

Abstract:

Under the background of China"s macro-carbon economy, reduce carbon emissions intensity was the primary task to control carbon emissions. The intermediate inputs intensity and input structure were first introduced into the carbon intensity factors study. Datas from 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007, 2010, were selected as samples and impacts from energy structural, energy input rate of substitution, put into structural and intermediate inputs intensity structure were examined in detailed with LMDI method. The results showed that energy inputs replacement rate played an important part in decrease China"s carbon emission intensity, and intermediate inputs intensity structure and put into structural had a negative contribution on the reduce of carbon intensity, while energy structural does little effect on carbon intensity. According to the analysis results, the total effect suppressed the reduce of carbon intensity from 2002 to 2005, while accelerated it in other sections. Therefore, adjusting the investment structure and improving energy efficiency were the urgent priority.