能源技术进步对石油需求及节油减排潜力的影响——基于多因素视角的研究

Impact of Energy Technology Progress on Oil Demand and Energy Saving and Emissions Reduction Potential——Based on the Research of Multiple Factors Perspective

摘要:

能源技术进步被认为是减缓石油消费增速的主要方式。本文从技术进步、结构调整、城镇化等角度出发,探讨我国石油需求的影响机制。研究表明：(1)技术进步对抑制石油增长的作用较小,其节油空间有待提升；(2)经济结构和城镇化是拉动石油需求的主因；(3)GDP、城镇化率与石油需求之间具有单向因果关系,以节油为目的的能源政策不会损害经济增长和城镇化推进。结合情景分析,评估2015-2025年节油减排潜力,提出未来节油减排的政策建议。

Abstract:

Energy technology progress is considered to be a main way of slowing the growth in oil consumption. From the perspective of technological progress and structural adjustment, urbanization, etc, this paper explores the influencing mechanism of China"s oil demand. Results show that: (1) Technology progress plays a smaller role in the inhibition of the oil growth, its fuel-efficient space to ascend ;(2) Economic structure and urbanization are the main reasons for pulling oil demand; (3) There is a one-way causal relationship between GDP, urbanization and oil consumption, for the purpose of energy saving policy will not harm economic growth and urbanization. Combining with the scenario analysis from 2015 to 2025, to assess the oil-saving and emissions reduction potential, the paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions as future references.