基于云理论与前景理论的创业机会优选

Optimal Selection of Pioneering Opportunities Based on Cloud Theory and Prospect Theory

摘要:

为了解决创业机会评价与优选问题，提出了基于云理论和前景理论的创业机会优选方法。首先，利用云理论建立自然语言云模型，把自然语言的定性描述合理地向定量描述转换。随后，结合TOPSIS方法，把正（负）理想方案作为机会选择的参照点，基于前景理论求解各创业机会的综合前景值，从中选取最优创业机会。最后，通过实例验证了该方法的科学性和可行性，并比较了与传统方法的优越性。

关键词:创业机会; 云理论; 前景理论;TOPSIS方法

Abstract:

In order to solve the problems of assessment and optimal selection of pioneering opportunities, an optimal method of pioneering opportunities is proposed, based on cloud theory and prospect theory. Firstly, the cloud model of natural language is established, which reasonably convert the qualitative descriptions of natural language to quantification. Secondly, the TOPSIS method is applied to take the positive and negative ideal solutions as reference points; Comprehensive prospect value of each opportunity is solved based on prospect theory, which is used to select the optimal opportunity. Finally, case study shows its scientificity and feasibility, and the advantages of proposed method are compared with the traditional method.

Key words:Pioneering Opportunities; Cloud Theory; Prospect Theory; TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution)