中国物流业能源消耗、碳排放与行业发展关系分析*

An Analysis of Relationship among Energy Consumption, Carbon Emission and Economic Growth on China’s logistics

摘要:

物流业是我国能源消耗和碳排放的重要行业之一,研究物流业的能源消耗、碳排放与行业发展之间的关系对于保证行业的健康发展具有重要意义。本文以我国物流业为研究对象,对其能源消耗、碳排放和产业发展特征进行了分析,并利用Tapio脱钩分析技术对2003-2012年我国物流业的能源消耗、碳排放和行业发展情况进行了脱钩分析。结果表明：2003-2012年,我国物流业的能源消耗、碳排放的增长率要大于行业发展的增长率,三者均在样本年内呈现出了增长的趋势；行业发展与碳排放和能源消耗基本都呈现出了扩张性负脱钩关系,表明我国物流业目前的节能减排形势很不乐观,行业的能源浪费和无效排放问题还比较严重；减排弹性指标近年来表现较好,主要原因是近年来国家相关物流政策的出台。

Abstract:

Logistics sector is one of the important sectors in energy consumption and carbon emissions in China and it is of great significance to study the relationship among the logistics sector’s energy consumption, carbon emissions and sector’s development. Focusing on logistics sector, this paper analyzed the characteristics of its energy consumption, carbon emissions and sector development. Then, using Tapio decoupling analysis techniques, it analyzed the decoupling relationship among these three indicators from 2003 to 2012 in China. The results showed that the growth rate of logistics energy consumption and carbon emissions were greater than sector development. The relationships between logistics development and carbon emissions or energy consumption are presented expansive negative decoupling and it meant energy waste and emissions invalid were quite serious. Reduction elasticity index performed better in recent years which showed the energy structure of China"s logistics sector was constantly improving.