依据“电热碳分摊”原则测算出中国30个省区碳排放量,基于EKC理论,构建协整空间DURBIN模型研究了中国区域碳排放环境管制的空间溢出效应。实证结果表明,区域人均碳排放量、环境管制存在着显著的空间相关性；区域人均碳排放量与区域人均地区生产总值之间存在着长期稳定的EKC曲线关系；本区域能源强度、产业结构、城市化率以及环境管制对本区域人均碳排放的直接效应(弹性)分别为0.690、0.181、0.029、-0.001,对邻近区域人均碳排放的溢出效应(弹性)分别为0.090、0.024、0.004、-0.036,本区域环境管制对邻近区域人均碳排放的溢出效应要明显高于其对本区域人均碳排放的直接效应。

According to the principles of electricity (hot) carbon allocation, this paper estimates the carbon emissions of 30 provinces of China. Based on the theory of EKC, we construct the DURBIN co-integration space model to study the spatial spillover effects of China's regional carbon emissions and environmental regulation. The empirical results show that the regional per capita carbon emissions and environmental regulation exists significant spatial correlation; There exists a long-term stability of the EKC curve relationship between regional per capita carbon emissions and per capita GDP; Regional energy intensity, the industrial structure, urbanization rate and environmental regulation directly have effect on the regional per capita carbon emissions (elastic) ,the direct effect were 0.690, 0.181, 0.029, -0.01, the spillover effects (elastic) on adjacent area per capita carbon emissions were 0.090, 0.024, 0.004, -0.036. The spillover effect on the adjacent area per capita carbon emissions of regional environmental regulation is significantly higher than its direct effect on the regional per capita carbon emissions.

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国家社科基金项目“中国区域技术创新碳减排效应及优化政策研究”（13BJY024）；重庆工商大学研究生创新型科研项目“中国碳排放影响因素及碳减排潜力研究”（yjscxx2015-41-05）；重庆工商大学研究生创新型科研项目“中国环境规制碳减排效应及优化对策研究”（ yjscxx2015-41-03）。