基于时变参数的互联网信息服务业产品附随扩散模型研究

Model study on contingent diffusion of Internet information service’s products based on time-varying parameter

摘要:

互联网信息服务业产品具有附随扩散特性,但鲜有将附随扩散模型引入互联网信息服务业的研究成果。而传统的附随扩散模型由于未考虑参数的时变性将导致参数计算时的误差和预测精确性的下降,更不利于指导快速发展变化的互联网企业制定相应的营销策略和产品发展策略。本文结合传统的附随扩散模型,考虑了创新系数和模仿系数的时变性,探索研究基于时变参数的附随扩散模型的互联网信息服务业产品附随扩散机理。实证分析表明,时变参数的附随扩散模型具有更高的模拟精度和预测精度,可以更准确地描述互联网信息服务业产品的扩散特征,帮助企业更准确地预测产品发展趋势,制定发展策略,同时促进监管部门对互联网信息服务业市场竞争秩序进行有效监管。

Abstract:

Internet information service have the characteristic of contingent diffusion, however, there is few achievements about introducing contingent diffusion into Internet information service, and traditional contingent diffusion model doesn’t consider time-dependent parameter, this will cause the error of parameter calculation and the decline of prediction accuracy, not conducive to enterprise in designing marketing strategy and product development strategy. This paper constructs the time-varying parameter contingent diffusion model, the empirical analysis shows, the improved model has higher simulation and prediction precision, can help an enterprise to formulate more accurate development strategy.