基于专利数据的技术预警模型及实证研究

The model and empirical research of Technology Early-warning Based on Patent Data

摘要:

在技术逐渐成为企业核心竞争力的今天,进行技术预警对企业来说显得尤为重要。据此,以企业专利为数据源,从技术稳定性、技术垄断性、技术安全性和技术前瞻性四个方面建立基于专利数据的技术预警指标体系及模型。随后,结合中国石油化工集团公司2002-2013年12年间在六个子行业的专利数据验证该模型的合理性与可操作性。研究结果表明,可将企业专利数据进行处理,并应用到技术预警模型中,分析企业以往技术危机走势、了解当前技术危机程度,推测未来出现技术危机的可能,以更好规避技术危机。

Abstract:

Technology early-warning as a forecast of technical crisis is getting more and more attention from enterprises. Therefore, we establish an index system in four perspectives (technical stability, technical monopoly, technical security and technical prospective) and build a model of technology early-warning based on patent data. Subsequently, we do an empirical research with six sub-sectors’ patent data of China Petroleum Chemical Corporation from 2002 to 2013 to verify the model’s rationality and operability. Finally we find that enterprises can put their patent data into technology early-warning model to anlyze and forecast their technical crisis, and that will be useful for enterprises to evade technical crisis.