我国远洋渔业碳排放与行业经济增长的响应关系研究

Research on the Responsive Relationship between China’s Deep-Sea Fishery Carbon Emissions and Industry Economic Growth

摘要:

利用脱钩理论,分析了2001-2013年我国远洋渔业碳排放与行业经济增长之间脱钩关系的变化轨迹,进而又采用LMDI分解法,对远洋渔业碳排放驱动因素进行分解,从规模效应、产业结构效应与碳排放强度效应三方面探究了远洋渔业碳排放与行业经济增长响应关系的深层次原因。研究结果表明,2001-2013年间,我国远洋渔业碳排放与行业经济增长的脱钩关系并不稳定,但近三年均处于增长负脱钩状态,因此远洋渔业的减排行动势在必行；在碳排放的驱动因素中,规模与碳排放强度的贡献值近年来均在不断增大,而产业结构的贡献值出现负值。基于实证结果及行业发展现状,提出推动远洋渔业装备转型升级、加快海外基地建设以促进产业链延伸以及探索远洋渔业碳平衡交易制度等对策建议。

Abstract:

According to decoupling theory, this paper analyzed the changing trajectories of decoupling relationship between China’s deep-sea fishery carbon emissions and its industry economic growth during 2001-2013. Further, adopting LMDI method, the paper decomposed the driving force of deep-sea fishery carbon emissions and explored the underlying causes of the responsive relationship from the effect of scale, industrial structure and carbon emission intensity. Result shows that during 2001-2013, the responsive relationship between China’s deep-sea fishery carbon emissions and its industry economic growth is not stable but it is in the state of incremental negative decoupling in the latest three years. Thus we must make carbon cuts in the deep-sea fishery industry. Among the driving-factors of carbon emissions, the contribution value of scale and carbon intensity is increasing during recent years while the contribution value of industrial structure goes negative. Based the empirical results and present developing status of the industry, some suggestions like promoting the transformation and upgrading of deep-sea fishery equipment, extending industrial chain through accelerating the construction of oversea bases and exploring the carbon balance trading system were proposed.