基于离差最大化的中国制造业能源消耗指数研究

Research on the Energy Consumption Index of Manufacturing based on Maximum Deviation

摘要:

本文以1995-2012年28个制造业行业的能源消耗量为数据源，采取离差最大化方法对10项指标数据进行处理，分别求出各项指标的权重和综合评价值，构建能源消耗指数模型，分析我国制造业的能源消耗趋势和周期。结果表明，1995-2012年制造业的能源消耗总体呈下降趋势,1998年和2005年是两个重要拐点，由此将能源消耗指数数据列分为三个周期：1995-1997年，1998-2005年，2006-2012年，从而分期对制造业的能源消耗状况进行分析并得出启示，为我国制造业的能源消耗提供可参考的意见。

关键词:制造业;能源消耗指数;离差最大化;能源政策

Abstract:

In this paper, it has collected energy data on 28 manufacturing industries from 1995-2012 and normalizes these data based on maximum deviation, then determines the weights of these indicators and their comprehensive evaluation values and build the model of energy consumption index to analyze the trend in energy consumption of China's manufacturing industry .The study shows a decreasing trend in energy consumption, and 1998 and 2005 are two important turning points. The data of energy consumption index is divided into the three cycles: 1995-1997, 1998-2005, 2006-2012.The analysis on energy consumption of the three cycles and can give important enlightenment and provide reference for energy consumption of China's manufacturing industry.

Key words:Manufacturing; Energy Consumption Index; Maximum Deviation;Energy Policy