基于谱分析的中国科技创新与经济增长周期波动的研究

Research on Chinese Scientific and Technological Innovation and Economic Growth Cycle Fluctuations Based on Spectral Analysis

摘要:

科技创新是促进经济社会发展的首要动力,是经济增长的源泉,创新驱动战略的实施,表明中国未来的发展要靠科技创新驱动,而不是传统的劳动力以及资源能源驱动本论文选取GDP增长率代表经济增长状况,国家财政科技拨款增长率代表科技投入情况,技术市场交易额增长率表示科技产出情况,基于三个指标1990-2013年的时间序列数据,通过谱分析,对我国科技创新与经济增长的周期关系进行了研究。单谱分析结果表明我国经济增长与科技创新都有一个主周期,分别为6年和4年。交叉谱分析结果表明科技投入增长速度略领先于经济增长速度,科技产出增长速度明显落后于经济增长速度。

关键词:谱分析;科技创新;经济增长

Abstract:

Scientific and technological innovation is the primary driving force for social development and the source of economic growth. The implementation of innovation-driving strategy notes that China"s future development would more follow a scientific and technological innovation driving path, rather than the traditional energy-labor-resource growth pattern. This paper selects GDP growth rate on behalf of economic growth level, the growth rate of national financial allocations for science and technology on behalf of scientific and technological input growth, and the technology market turnover growth rate on behalf of scientific and technological output situation. Based on these three indicators of time-series data from 1990 to 2013, this paper studies the relationship between scientific and technological innovation and economic growth by spectral analysis. Single spectral analysis shows that the economic growth and technological innovation respectively has a primary period of6 and 4 years. Cross-spectral analysis shows that the growth rate of scientific and technological inputs slightly ahead of the pace of economic growth, science and technology output growth rate lagged behind in economic growth.

Key words:spectral;analysis, scientific;and technological;innovation, economic;growth