同时考虑投资和生产阶段的灵活性，将单井产量递减性和区块资源丰度差异性纳入到实物期权理论分析框架，构建了不确定环境下页岩气区块价值评价模型及投资决策模型，给出了最佳投资时机的解析解，并通过静态比较与数值分析进一步探讨了不确定性和产量特征对最佳投资时机的影响。研究发现以页岩气井口价格波动为代表的不确定性增大了开发企业的等待价值；单井产量递减率的存在减小了页岩气区块的期权价值和投资价值，产量递减率越大，项目价值越小，开发企业更愿意推迟投资以确保当前不受损失；区块资源丰度表征着页岩气开发项目期权价值和投资价值大小，区块资源丰度等级越高，越能更早的触发投资。

Considering the flexibility of investing and producing phase at the same time, we bring single well production decline and block resource abundance difference into the basic real options theoretical analytical framework, and build the real option value evaluation model and decision model of investment, and discuss the influence of uncertainty and output characteristics on the investment timing. We find that value-waiting of enterprise increases with the uncertainty of shale gas wellhead price growing. The existence of individual-well producing decline rate reduced the option value and the investment value of the project, so the more production decreases the fewer projects value. In this case, the development enterprise will postpone investment to ensure that the current benefit against loss. Resources abundance characterization of shale gas is one indication of project option value and investment value. And the higher the resource abundance, the earlier to trigger investment.

F272.3

国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目）