基于NC-AHP的区域生态安全评价与预警研究——以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为例

Research on evaluation and early-warning of regional ecological security based on NC-AHP: a case study of the efficient ecological economic zone of the Yellow River Delta

摘要:

针对生态安全演变过程中存在的随机性与模糊性问题,提出基于NC(正态云)-AHP的综合分析模型。综合考虑生态环境状态、生态环境胁迫及生态风险免疫三方面影响因素构建区域生态安全指标体系。运用该模型对黄河三角洲高效生态经济区历史时序年份(2003~2013年)及规划年份(2016年)的生态安全进行定量评估和动态预警。结果表明：2003~2013年区域生态环境从“危险”状态到“敏感”状态再到“良好”状态,呈现逐渐好转的态势,但整体生态安全水平仍较低,均未达到“安全”状态。2016年区域生态安全为“良好”状态,且具有向“敏感”状态发展的趋势,大气污染、水资源短缺、能源消耗、工业“三废”等是影响黄河三角洲高效生态经济区生态环境的主要短板因素。

Abstract:

In view of the problems of the randomness and fuzziness that in the process of the evolution of ecological security, in this paper, proposed a comprehensive analysis model based on NC (normal cloud) –AHP. The regional ecological security index system was constructed based on the ecosystem state, ecosystem danger and ecosystem immunity. The model was employed to quantitatively assess and dynamically early-warning the ecological security of the efficient ecological economic zone of the Yellow River Delta during the historical years (2003~2013) and the year of planning (2016). The results showed that: the ecological security status from "danger state to "sensitive state to "good" state from 2003~2013, which demonstrated that the overall status of ecological security was undergoing increasing improvement, but all safety states were less than the general requirement of “safe” state. In 2016, the regional ecological security will be "good" state and has the tendency of developing to "sensitive" state. Atmospheric pollution, water resources shortage, energy consumption and industrial "three wastes" are the mainly short board factors of ecological environment in the efficient ecological economic zone of the Yellow River Delta.