激励政策对新能源汽车推广的影响研究——基于修正Bass模型的实证分析

Effects of Incentives to the Promotion of New Energy Vehicles ——Based on the Empirical Analysis of Modified Bass Model

摘要:

为了更好的发挥新能源汽车政策的指导作用，需要对政策影响深入研究。从私人消费者决策角度出发，基于Bass模型系统引入政策因素后可得到较高预测精度的修正模型，用于分析我国政策对插电式混合动力汽车推广的影响。研究发现，潜在采用者对其与传统汽车成本权衡较在乎，单位公共充电站可以影响到约211人，我国现行政策可使2013~2030年累计推广量增加五倍多，且对不同油价环境适应性良好。相关研究方法可为以后政策制定提供量化决策依据。

Abstract:

In order to help policies of new energy vehicles to play a better leading role, the effects of policy need to be studied in depth. From the perspective of private consumers decision process, the introduction of policy factors systematically in the Bass model can reach a modified model with high precision , which can be used to analyze the influence of domestic policies on the plug-in hybrid promotion. Study found that potential adopters care for the relative cost against the conventional car, and each unit public charging stations may affect about 211 people. Due to the implemention of China"s current policy, the cumulative promotion quatity during 2013 to 2030 will increase more than five times, and quite adaptable to different oil price environment. The related research methods could be used to provide quantitative basis for policy making.