理论的构建、拓展、修正、应用和检验是一个研究领域发展的重要推动力。在组织和管理理论领域,学者们也一直在大力呼吁新理论的开发和提出。统计组织理论(Statistico-organizational theory)是组织管理领域最近诞生的一个新理论。该理论是将统计学原理创造性地借用到管理分析的理论创新。本文归纳总结了统计组织理论的核心思想以及小样本定律、测量误差、范围误差和混淆因果因素等关键内容。在此基础上,以人力资源管理领域为例,通过将统计组织理论应用于对招聘、培训、绩效考核和职务晋升、薪酬等人力资源管理职能的理论分析、提出新理论命题,进一步阐释统计组织理论可以为组织管理研究所带来的新理论视角和理论创见。

The construction, extension, modification, application and validation of theories are the important driving force for the development of a research field. In the field of organization and management, the scholars have been strongly calling for the development of new theories. This paper mainly introduces a new theory in the field of organization and management - statistico-organizational theory. The theory is one theoretical innovation which creatively applies the statistics theory to the management. This paper introduces the basic ideas of this theory, and mainly presents the law of small numbers, measurement error, range artifacts and confounding errors in the management data analysis and decision-making. Further, by elaborating on the implications of the statistico-organizational theory to the human resource management in terms of functions including recruitment, training, performance appraisal and promotion, and compensation, this paper illustrates how statistic-organizational theory can serve as a new theoretical perspective and stimulate new theoretical insights.

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中国人民大学科研启动基金(30214520)；中国人民大学2014年度拔尖创新人才培育资助计划成果；