基于层次分析法的项目管理风险因素估计与方案优化选择*—以汽车零部件项目为例

Based on the AHP Project Management Risk Factors Estimation and Optimization Choice——Car Parts Project as an Example

摘要:

我国汽车零部件行业的发展严重落后于整车,大部分零部件市场被外资品牌长期占据,与国外系统化、细致化的管理方法来比,我国还存在很大的差距,特别是在项目管理的风险防控方面。该篇论文主要是通过识别出来的影响汽车零部件项目风险管理的五种因素,分析这五种风险在项目管理中存在的问题。基于层次分析法建立了一个风险评估模型,通过量化每种因素的各项指标,计算出每种风险因素所占的权重大小；然后应用同样方法计算出方案层的权重,根据权重大小对方案进行判定,选出了最优的实施方案,并且从技术风险和费用风险两方面对风险进行控制,对方案进行改进。

关键词:汽车零部件，项目管理，风险估计，方案优化，层次分析法

Abstract:

China"s car parts industry seriously lagged behind the development of the whole car, most parts market long dominated by foreign brand.With foreign systematic and detailed management methods, to our country still exists a big gap, especially in the aspect of risk prevention and control of project management. This paper identified the five factors influencing the risk management of car parts, analysis of the five problems that exist in the risk in project management. Based on the AHP to establish a risk assessment model, by quantifying the indicators of each factor, calculate the weights of every risk factors; Then apply the same method to calculate the solution layer of weight, size according to the weight to determine solutions, choose the optimal implementation plan, and from two aspects of technology and cost risk to control risk, to improve the solution.

Key words:car parts;peojec Management;risk assessment;scheme optimization;AHP