基于三角模糊数的云模型在输变电工程项目安全评价中的应用

Security Assessment of Power Transmission Project Based on Triangular Fuzzy Number Cloud Model

摘要:

针对输变电工程施工安全评估的特点,全面考虑风险指标定性概念模糊性和不确定性,研究一种定性分析与客观计算相结合的评价方法。首先以输变电工程施工过程为研究对象,对影响输变电工程施工阶段的各风险因素进行归类分析并结合4M1E理论建立风险指标体系,为避免传统模型权重分配的单一性,引入三角模糊数进行主客观综合赋权来确定各指标权重；然后结合云模型本身不确定性推理特性兼具定性、定量分析的特点,构建基于三角模糊数的云模型进行评估；最后通过Matlab仿真分析表明了方法的可行性和适用性。

关键词:输变电工程;云模型;三角模糊数;安全评价

Abstract:

According to the characteristics of power transmission project construction safety assessment, taking full account of the risk indicators qualitative concept fuzziness and uncertainty, combined with a qualitative analysis with the objective calculation method for the evaluation of research. First, study for the power transmission project in the construction process, on the risk factors affecting the power transmission project construction stage were classified and analyzed and the risk index system is established according to the theory of 4M1E, in order to avoid the single traditional model weight distribution into the triangular fuzzy number of subjective and objective weighting method to determine the weight of each index, and then combined with the cloud model itself is not deterministic reasoning characteristic of both qualitative and quantitative analysis of the characteristics of and construction based on triangular fuzzy number of cloud model are evaluated. Finally, the feasibility and applicability of the method are demonstrated by Matlab simulation.

Key words:Power Transmission Project;Cloud Model;Triangular Fuzzy Number;Security Assessment