城市低碳竞争力的高低是低碳城市建设成果的直接反映,同时低碳城市建设的推进需要提前找到城市低碳竞争力在发展过程中可能存在的问题,本文建立城市低碳竞争力评价指标体系并借助系统动力学建模对武汉城市圈、珠三角等4个城市群2007到2016年的低碳竞争力进行仿真预测分析。结果显示中国城市群城市低碳竞争力整体排名变化比较大,武汉城市圈和京津唐城市群的竞争力随时间变化呈现平稳的变化趋势,而珠三角和呼包鄂城市群分别呈上升和下降趋势。最后,本文针对结果分析,从政府、企业和居民三个层面提出了提升低碳竞争力的相关建议。

Urban low-carbon competitiveness is the direct reflection of product the construction of low-carbon cities. Meanwhile, finding the potential problems in the development of urban low-carbon competitiveness ahead of time is of great significance to the advancement of low-carbon cities construction. Therefore, it is imperative to establish the evaluation index system for urban low-carbon competitiveness and have system dynamics modeling to conduct simulation analysis and predict the low-carbon competitiveness of Wuhan city circle, the PRD city clusters and other two urban clusters from 2007 to 2016. The result of it shows the ranking for low-carbon competitiveness of city clusters in China changed drastically. Such competitiveness of Wuhan city circle and Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan city clusters have remained stable, While that of PRD city cluster and Hu Hehaote-Baotou- Eerduosi city cluster have risen steadily and been on the constant decline respectively. At last, this paper gave some advice on improving Urban Low-carbon Competitiveness from the level of government, enterprise and resident.

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国家自然科学基金资助项目石油储层识别中软计算与硬计算融合的理论与方法研究(71103163)；教育部“新世纪优秀人才支持计划”项目城市综合承灾能力测算(NCET-13-1012)；教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金资助项目中国城市集群竞争力的动态测度、比较与提升策略研究(10YJC790071)。