互联网产业内贸易动态演化研究：指数构建与预测

Dynamic Evolution Research of Intra-industry Internet Trade Development：Index Construction and Prognosis

摘要:

将互联网产业内贸易分为商业存在、软件外包、互联网金融、电子商务等四种形态，构建测度互联网产业内贸易发展的统计指标体系，运用因子分析法和层次分析法设计互联网产业内贸易发展综合指数，并通过神经网络方法对2008-2014年我国互联网产业内贸易发展水平进行动态演化研究。结果表明：2013年之前我国互联网产业内贸易发展总体上呈现直线稳定上升状态，但由于互联网金融、电子商务等领域的超常规发展，2014年以来互联网产业内贸易发展速度开始加快，并超过了稳定区间，需要实施针对性的政策措施确保其健康持续发展。

Abstract:

Intra-industry Internet Trade could be divided into four forms, commercial presence, software outsourceing, internet finance and E business. This paper constructs statistic index system to evaluate internet intra-industry trade development, and designs internet intra-industry trade development index with factor analysis and step analysis, and it carries out dynamic evolution analysis for internet intra-industry trade development of China in 2008-2014. The result indicates that, internet intra-industry trade development of China climbs steadyly before 2013, and develops beyond stability range after 2014. It is necessary to implement policy to insure healthy and stable development of internet intra-industry trade.