运用系统分析的理论与方法对区域水资源供需平衡问题进行系统分析，构建鄱阳湖生态经济区水资源供需系统模型，通过调整控制变量和相关参数，预测区域水资源供需的变化趋势，仿真该区域在2011—2030年期间水资源供需情势，设计维持现状、经济优先、节水优先和协调发展等四种模式进行对比分析并优选方案，为科学制定鄱阳湖生态经济区水资源规划、高效配置提供依据，为江西省开展生态文明先行示范区建设提供决策参考。

This paper used the theory and method of system to system analyse the problem of the regional water supply and demand balance. Then building the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone water supply and demand system model，and adjusting the control variables and related parameters to forecast the water supply and demand trends.In the end，the author designed the maintaining the status quo, economic priority, water conservation and harmonious development model to simulate and optimizate the region’s water supply and demand situation during 2011 to 2030.The research results could provide the basis for the scientific development of water resources planning and efficient allocation in Poyang Lake eco economic zone and supply reference to the construction of ecological civilization in Jiangxi province.

教育部人文社科基金项目（12YJC630298）；江西省社科规划项目（14GL24）；江西省高校人文社科项目（JJ1104）