中日产业转移及贸易“隐含碳”的影响因素分析

Industry Transfer and Driving Facts of “Trade Embodied Carbon” in China-Japan

摘要:

内容提要：本文采用改进的非竞争性投入产出模型及结构分析法(SDA),根据净出口消费指数及垂直专业化率,分别测算了1995-2011年两国污染产业的转移情况,贸易“隐含碳”的影响因素及垂直专业化率与“隐含碳”的相互关系。结果表明：中国并未成为“污染者天堂”,日本主要向中国转移了化工业、采掘业、其他非金属矿物制造业、交通设备制造业及机械设备制造等高、中碳产业,中国则向日本转移了木材加工业、其他制造业等中碳产业及大部分低碳产业。在影响因素中,能源使用效率及中间技术效应减少了“隐含碳”的排放,贡献率分别为-170.12%及-6.37%；规模效应及结构效应促进了“隐含碳”排放,贡献率分别为158.06%及39.54%。中国垂直化率与出口“隐含碳”之间存在显著正相关关系,垂直专业化率每增加1%,出口CO₂增加0.974%。

Abstract:

Using the improved input-output model and Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA), it dynamically analyzed transfer of polluting industries between the two countries, the driving factors of "embodied carbon", mutual relations between vertical specialization rate and "embodied carbon" from 1995 to 2011, based on NETXC and vertical specialization rate. The result shows that China has not become the "polluter paradise", Japan mainly transferred high-middle carbon intensity industries to China, including chemical industries, mining and quarrying industries, other non-metal mineral industries, transport equipment industries, machinery industries. While China mainly transferred middle-low carbon intensity industries to Japan, including wood and products of wood and cork industries, other machinery industries. The SDA analysis revealed that energy effect and intermediate technology effect decreased respectively -170.12% and -6.37% embodied carbon of China export to Japan. Scale effect and structure effect respectively increased 158.06% and 39.54% “embodied carbon” of China export to Japan. There was a significant positive correlation between vertical specialization rate and "embodied carbon", vertical specialization rate increased by 1 %, "embodied carbon" in exports increased 0.974%.